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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal developed with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials did not provide specific details regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture more land following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would constitute guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is near agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not received the details of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to forces of NATO member states operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. One proposal centers on Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard formations instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he concluded.