🔗 Share this article Moving from Reluctant Admiration to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Maduro. A shock assault on the capital under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power announces its intention to govern for an indefinite period. That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York. Official Outrage and Private Thoughts In public, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of global norms and a dangerous precedent. But behind the official statements, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the efficiency of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance. “The operation was carried out competently,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was supposed to proceed: swift, decisive and decisive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be fighting for four years.” These observations have fed a mood of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict. Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote. Allies in Decline For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington. Yet despite Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for the Caracas government just in late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other key allies fall from power or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's global influence. “For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into little choice but to express outrage. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.” Focus on the Main Front Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue far outweighs the fate of Caracas. “Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added. Tangible Costs and New Threats Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia. This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025. Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever. A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams. “If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.” A Bleak Silver Lining? Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more nakedly power-based world order – one where power, rather than rules, shapes outcomes. “Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”
A shock assault on the capital under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power announces its intention to govern for an indefinite period. That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York. Official Outrage and Private Thoughts In public, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of global norms and a dangerous precedent. But behind the official statements, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the efficiency of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance. “The operation was carried out competently,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was supposed to proceed: swift, decisive and decisive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be fighting for four years.” These observations have fed a mood of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict. Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote. Allies in Decline For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington. Yet despite Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for the Caracas government just in late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other key allies fall from power or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's global influence. “For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into little choice but to express outrage. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.” Focus on the Main Front Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue far outweighs the fate of Caracas. “Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added. Tangible Costs and New Threats Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia. This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025. Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever. A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams. “If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.” A Bleak Silver Lining? Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more nakedly power-based world order – one where power, rather than rules, shapes outcomes. “Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”