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Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."